Traders › Bleak-Lava
Bleak-Lava: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x006c…16ea · Tailwhale rank #179 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
42/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+3.7 pts
Win rate
45% of positions
Markets traded
73 in 180 days
PnL: – · $4,711,277 all time · ROI on closed positions 11.0%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
41.8 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 27/100 | 10.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +3.7 pts on 80 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-7.8%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 73 | 6.2 | 73 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +3.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 80 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +3.7 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 45% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $4,682,938 |
| politics | $15,109 |
| weather | $7,748 |
| culture | $5,484 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Bought No | Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | 59¢ | $152 |
| 2026-07-07 | Bought No | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | 96¢ | $325 |
| 2026-07-06 | Bought No | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | 64¢ | $960 |
| 2026-07-06 | Bought No | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | 64¢ | $76,160 |
| 2026-07-06 | Bought Yes | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | 3¢ | $84 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sold No | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 98¢ | $18,550 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bought Over | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 | 56¢ | $28,000 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bought Belgium | Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance | 65¢ | $65,000 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bought Yes | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | 48¢ | $127,707 |
| 2026-06-23 | Bought Yes | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | 65¢ | $97,500 |
| 2026-06-21 | Bought Yes | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? | 11¢ | $55,000 |
| 2026-06-21 | Bought Yes | Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? | 21¢ | $36,815 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Yes | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | 57¢ | $11,400 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bought Under | Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | 58¢ | $89,437 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bought Qatar | Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | 41¢ | $6,839 |
Get alerts when Bleak-Lava trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.