Traders › Knowing-Arthur-Ash
Knowing-Arthur-Ash: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x3653…ef74 · Tailwhale rank #195 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
40/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−4.0 pts
Win rate
9% of positions
Markets traded
1,029 in 180 days
PnL: $126,784 this month · ROI on closed positions 13.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
40 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -4.0 pts on 908 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-25.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1029 | 10.0 | 1029 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -4.0 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 908 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -4.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 9% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $8,609 |
| tech | $4,162 |
| weather | $4,157 |
| sports | $3,001 |
| culture | $2,254 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will South Korea win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 100¢ | $45 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Laos win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 93¢ | $46 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Nepal win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Cambodia win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Cambodia win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 100¢ | $42 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Laos win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 97¢ | $43 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Cambodia win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 100¢ | $38 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 14? | 98¢ | $34 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on November 14? | 99¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 14? | 97¢ | $23 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on November 14? | 100¢ | $10 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will MiniMax have the best AI model on December 15, 2026? | 100¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 14? | 93¢ | $10 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on November 14? | 100¢ | $32 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on November 14? | 98¢ | $13 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.