Traders › Messy-Ritual-Hops
Messy-Ritual-Hops: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xb0e7…39d2 · Tailwhale rank #140 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
47/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+3.8 pts
Win rate
33% of positions
Markets traded
94 in 180 days
PnL: $1,946,706 this month · ROI on closed positions -9.7%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
47.3 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 64/100 | 25.7 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +3.8 pts on 94 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-20.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 94 | 6.6 | 94 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +3.8 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 94 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +3.8 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 33% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $28,197 |
| weather | $10,145 |
| sports | $9,919 |
| tech | $4,780 |
| finance | $4,123 |
| culture | $3,958 |
| esports | $1,571 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Sold No | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 83¢ | $1,432 |
| 2026-10-26 | Sold Yes | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 0¢ | $17 |
| 2026-10-26 | Sold Yes | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 16¢ | $132 |
| 2026-10-26 | Sold Yes | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 16¢ | $72 |
| 2026-10-23 | Sold No | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 76¢ | $757 |
| 2026-10-22 | Sold No | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | 30¢ | $170 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sold No | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | 98¢ | $155 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sold Yes | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18? | 93¢ | $204 |
| 2026-10-05 | Sold No | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 83¢ | $2,210 |
| 2026-09-25 | Sold Yes | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 93¢ | $80 |
| 2026-09-24 | Sold No | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | 99¢ | $248 |
| 2026-08-31 | Sold Yes | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 41¢ | $12 |
| 2026-08-31 | Sold Yes | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 34¢ | $11 |
| 2026-08-31 | Sold Yes | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 88¢ | $21 |
| 2026-08-31 | Sold Yes | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 40¢ | $31 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.