Traders › 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8
0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x64c8…73ce · Tailwhale rank #43 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
73/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+15.9 pts
Win rate
78% of positions
Markets traded
41 in 180 days
PnL: $202,094 this month · ROI on closed positions 24.3%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
72.8 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 78/100 | 31.1 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +15.9 pts on 46 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 63/100 | 12.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+12.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 83/100 | 12.5 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 75/100 | 11.2 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 41 | 5.4 | 41 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +15.9 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 46 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +15.9 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 78% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $170,230 |
| crypto | $20,516 |
| finance | $13,900 |
| sports | $11,850 |
| tech | $4,139 |
| culture | −$30,018 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 86¢ | $3,355 |
| 2026-11-09 | Bought Yes | Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? | 93¢ | $9,535 |
| 2026-11-09 | Bought Yes | Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 93¢ | $3,328 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Yes | Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 91¢ | $7,447 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 100¢ | $500 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 95¢ | $4,750 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 96¢ | $38 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 96¢ | $102 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 100¢ | $995 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | 100¢ | $4,995 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | 100¢ | $4,995 |
| 2026-11-02 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 80¢ | $10,617 |
| 2026-11-02 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? | 79¢ | $601 |
| 2026-11-01 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 71¢ | $12,575 |
| 2026-11-01 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 71¢ | $6,158 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.