Traders › 212121212121212121212
212121212121212121212: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x1bc0…4429 · Tailwhale rank #169 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
43/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+15.8 pts
Win rate
63% of positions
Markets traded
30 in 180 days
PnL: – · $807,694 all time · ROI on closed positions 49.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
43.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 44/100 | 17.8 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +15.8 pts on 30 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 2/100 | 0.4 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 33/100 | 5.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 30 | 4.9 | 30 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +15.8 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 30 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +15.8 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 63% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $832,709 |
| crypto | −$4,423 |
| culture | −$22,551 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Bought Under | Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 | 59¢ | $162 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Under | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | 62¢ | $223 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Under | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | 44¢ | $4,447 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Under | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | 56¢ | $69 |
| 2026-05-29 | Bought Under | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 | 46¢ | $5,285 |
| 2026-05-29 | Bought Under | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 | 48¢ | $4,693 |
| 2026-05-25 | Bought No | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 100¢ | $948 |
| 2026-05-25 | Bought Spurs | Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | 40¢ | $875 |
| 2026-05-24 | Bought No | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | 98¢ | $127 |
| 2026-05-24 | Bought No | Will Pacôme Dadiet win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | 100¢ | $173 |
| 2026-05-24 | Bought No | Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | 100¢ | $29 |
| 2026-05-24 | Bought No | Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | 100¢ | $45 |
| 2026-05-24 | Bought Yes | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 16¢ | $31 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sold Yes | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | 1¢ | $35 |
| 2026-04-25 | Bought Magic | Pistons vs. Magic | 44¢ | $4,252 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | $19,630 | 84¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.