Traders › 76marsh
76marsh: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xd7c9…b2a6 · Tailwhale rank #52 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
68/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+13.1 pts
Win rate
68% of positions
Markets traded
61 in 180 days
PnL: $79,716 this month · ROI on closed positions 24.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
67.5 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 51/100 | 20.5 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +13.1 pts on 65 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 56/100 | 11.1 | Return with the three best positions removed (+11.1%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 61 | 6.0 | 61 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +13.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 65 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +13.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 68% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| crypto | $71,270 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 82¢ | $348 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 78¢ | $222 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 79¢ | $444 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 78¢ | $37 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 69¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 69¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 71¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 69¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | 71¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | 81¢ | $163 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | 77¢ | $134 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | 75¢ | $444 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | 54¢ | $323 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | 52¢ | $156 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Down | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | 51¢ | $43 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.