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akroll: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x8bac…35ca · Tailwhale rank #49 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
69/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+1.5 pts
Win rate
34% of positions
Markets traded
1,845 in 180 days
PnL: $342,718 this month · ROI on closed positions 23.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
69 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 36/100 | 14.5 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.5 pts on 1539 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 73/100 | 14.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+14.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1845 | 10.0 | 1845 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1539 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 34% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $28,883 |
| finance | $5,483 |
| tech | $1,926 |
| culture | $1,134 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting? | 82¢ | $51 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | 52¢ | $2,919 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? | 23¢ | $34 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 1¢ | $30 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | 50¢ | $2,735 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $22 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.