Traders › Alder
Alder: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x9116…6fda · Tailwhale rank #41 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
75/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+1.3 pts
Win rate
89% of positions
Markets traded
26 in 180 days
PnL: $125,545 this month · ROI on closed positions 1.9%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
75.2 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 100/100 | 40.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.3 pts on 25 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 2/100 | 0.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 26 | 4.7 | 26 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 25 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.3 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 89% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $91,566 |
| culture | $3,605 |
| finance | $2,820 |
| tech | $1,158 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 100¢ | $268 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 99¢ | $1,176 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 100¢ | $6,513 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 100¢ | $891 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 99¢ | $2,056 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 99¢ | $9,859 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | 94¢ | $3,959 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 99¢ | $3,746 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 99¢ | $933 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | 98¢ | $4,136 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 99¢ | $4,128 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 98¢ | $1,526 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 98¢ | $919 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 95¢ | $3,251 |
| 2026-11-02 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95¢ | $117,759 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | $113,717 | 50¢ |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $11,591 | 50¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.