Traders › alex20011
alex20011: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x4868…a1c1 · Tailwhale rank #88 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
56/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+0.4 pts
Win rate
32% of positions
Markets traded
1,786 in 180 days
PnL: $456,469 this month · ROI on closed positions 23.0%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
56.3 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 12/100 | 4.8 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +0.4 pts on 1134 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 68/100 | 13.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+13.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1786 | 10.0 | 1786 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +0.4 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1134 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 32% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $62,881 |
| finance | $7,720 |
| culture | $3,691 |
| sports | $3,649 |
| tech | $3,622 |
| esports | $1,400 |
| crypto | −$7,084 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the US rank 22nd-23rd in the World Happiness Report 2027? | 89¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 12m? | 93¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 9m? | 97¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 110m and 130m? | 64¢ | $14 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | 98¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 90m? | 89¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 110m? | 80¢ | $18 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in November 2026? | 68¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in November 2026? | 75¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in November 2026? | 88¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | 99¢ | $61 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | 100¢ | $62 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | 99¢ | $62 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | 100¢ | $62 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | 86¢ | $53 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.