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almost-never: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x88b5…205c · Tailwhale rank #144 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
47/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+5.5 pts
Win rate
50% of positions
Markets traded
99 in 180 days
PnL: $104,161 this month · ROI on closed positions 7.6%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
46.7 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 41/100 | 16.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +5.5 pts on 106 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 7/100 | 1.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+1.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 99 | 6.7 | 99 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +5.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 106 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +5.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 50% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $215,309 |
| sports | $3,911 |
| culture | −$18,492 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 0%-3%? | 98¢ | $216 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 100¢ | $13,430 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-03 House election by 0%-3%? | 98¢ | $676 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? | 87¢ | $43 |
| 2026-11-05 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | 98¢ | $8,519 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04? | 98¢ | $488 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? | 34¢ | $58 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? | 35¢ | $454 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat? | 74¢ | $102 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat? | 69¢ | $24 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 49¢ | $980 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 49¢ | $980 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 50¢ | $1,000 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 58¢ | $699 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat? | 58¢ | $42 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.