Traders › ArielFilipino
ArielFilipino: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xe18e…f826 · Tailwhale rank #32 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
78/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+8.7 pts
Win rate
62% of positions
Markets traded
177 in 180 days
PnL: $517,095 this month · ROI on closed positions 22.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
78.3 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 58/100 | 23.3 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +8.7 pts on 177 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 88/100 | 17.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+17.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 177 | 7.5 | 177 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +8.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 177 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +8.7 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 62% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $615,588 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Bought Kings | Spread: Pelicans (-6.5) | 52¢ | $10,902 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Panthers | Spread: Packers (-4.5) | 54¢ | $4,590 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Over | Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 46.5 | 55¢ | $5,335 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Over | Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 46.5 | 55¢ | $32,148 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Panthers | Spread: Packers (-3.5) | 50¢ | $13,790 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Panthers | Spread: Packers (-4.5) | 54¢ | $15,930 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Jazz | Spread: Spurs (-13.5) | 53¢ | $5,937 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Jazz | Spread: Spurs (-13.5) | 53¢ | $1,650 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Jazz | Spread: Spurs (-13.5) | 53¢ | $11,880 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Heat | Spread: Hawks (-2.5) | 52¢ | $11,407 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Heat | Spread: Hawks (-2.5) | 53¢ | $6,210 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Heat | Spread: Hawks (-3.5) | 56¢ | $9,461 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Jazz | Spread: Spurs (-13.5) | 54¢ | $369 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Jazz | Spread: Spurs (-13.5) | 53¢ | $14,385 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Kennesaw State | Spread: Middle Tennessee (-1.5) | 53¢ | $11,550 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.