Traders › athelstan
athelstan: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xcfb6…06da · Tailwhale rank #170 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
43/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+15.1 pts
Win rate
56% of positions
Markets traded
39 in 180 days
PnL: – · $868,816 all time · ROI on closed positions 20.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
43 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 38/100 | 15.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +15.1 pts on 39 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-8.2%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 39 | 5.3 | 39 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +15.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 39 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +15.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 56% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $868,816 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Over | Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 40¢ | $4,000 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Over | Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 40¢ | $6,737 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Over | Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 40¢ | $5,263 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Over | Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 39¢ | $737 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Over | Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 39¢ | $1,020 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 52¢ | $33,800 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 53¢ | $53,000 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 53¢ | $30,338 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 53¢ | $44,828 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 53¢ | $47,714 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 52¢ | $131,228 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 52¢ | $100,968 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 52¢ | $18,469 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Over | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners | 40¢ | $1,775 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Over | Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners | 39¢ | $647 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.