Traders › balthazar
balthazar: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x5a21…9318 · Tailwhale rank #192 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
40/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−2.3 pts
Win rate
33% of positions
Markets traded
1,960 in 180 days
PnL: $2,233,207 this month · $1,088,516 all time · ROI on closed positions 3.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
40 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -2.3 pts on 1138 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-0.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1960 | 10.0 | 1960 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -2.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1138 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -1.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 33% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $429,311 |
| sports | $301,977 |
| finance | $79,172 |
| weather | $74,168 |
| culture | $65,180 |
| tech | $59,447 |
| crypto | $38,185 |
| esports | $8,633 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 73¢ | $37 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 14? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 73¢ | $37 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 14? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 70¢ | $35 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 14? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026? | 61¢ | $31 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on November 15? | 99¢ | $315 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 15? | 8¢ | $27 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | 99¢ | $29 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 48¢ | $24 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 14? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 14? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 48¢ | $24 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 14? | 99¢ | $50 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.