Traders › bettguy
bettguy: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x50f0…5355 · Tailwhale rank #87 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
56/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+9.4 pts
Win rate
49% of positions
Markets traded
41 in 180 days
PnL: – · $1,193,145 all time · ROI on closed positions 35.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
56.3 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 27/100 | 10.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +9.4 pts on 41 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 52/100 | 10.3 | Return with the three best positions removed (+10.3%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 41 | 5.4 | 41 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +9.4 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 41 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +9.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 49% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $1,193,145 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Bought Yes | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | 32¢ | $18,063 |
| 2026-07-18 | Bought Yes | Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 20¢ | $16,510 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bought No | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | 64¢ | $53,763 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bought No | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | 64¢ | $58,914 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bought No | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | 64¢ | $99,141 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bought Spain | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 41¢ | $69,979 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bought Spain | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 41¢ | $51,294 |
| 2026-07-12 | Bought No | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | 43¢ | $22,004 |
| 2026-07-12 | Bought No | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | 43¢ | $7,398 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Yes | Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 27¢ | $15,741 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Yes | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | 51¢ | $41,294 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Max Holloway | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | 70¢ | $41 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Max Holloway | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | 70¢ | $125,528 |
| 2026-07-09 | Bought Yes | Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 17¢ | $1,937 |
| 2026-07-07 | Bought Yes | Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw? | 33¢ | $43,425 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.