Traders › BMM-1
BMM-1: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xdf1c…2ebb · Tailwhale rank #163 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
44/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+8.7 pts
Win rate
74% of positions
Markets traded
25 in 180 days
PnL: $67,919 this month · ROI on closed positions 4.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
43.8 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 30/100 | 12.1 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +8.7 pts on 20 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-5.1%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 25 | 4.7 | 25 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +8.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 20 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +4.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 74% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| finance | $46,916 |
| politics | $1,820 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Sold No | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 98¢ | $982 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 2¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold No | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 98¢ | $982 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 2¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | AI bubble burst in 2026? | 93¢ | $1,619 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026? | 89¢ | $2,125 |
| 2026-11-09 | Bought Yes | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026? | 86¢ | $230 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 93¢ | $6,671 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | AI bubble burst in 2026? | 92¢ | $10,300 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought No | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 93¢ | $700 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought No | AI bubble burst in 2026? | 91¢ | $10,944 |
| 2026-11-05 | Bought No | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 89¢ | $1,521 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 0¢ | $306 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 86¢ | $800 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 84¢ | $300 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | $1,617 | 68¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.