Traders › boyau
boyau: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xe734…4f0c · Tailwhale rank #136 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
48/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+2.6 pts
Win rate
44% of positions
Markets traded
506 in 180 days
PnL: $115,568 this month · $866,098 all time · ROI on closed positions 7.6%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
48 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 29/100 | 11.4 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +2.6 pts on 566 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 20/100 | 3.9 | Return with the three best positions removed (+3.9%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 57/100 | 8.6 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 506 | 9.0 | 506 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +2.6 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 566 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 44% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| finance | $514,560 |
| sports | $110,199 |
| politics | $33,446 |
| crypto | $19,287 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 7¢ | $2,038 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $2,038 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $470 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November? | 91¢ | $39,261 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 54¢ | $5,554 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in November? | 83¢ | $23,520 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 54¢ | $7,127 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 54¢ | $2,186 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 46¢ | $10,902 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $117 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 93¢ | $17,071 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 88¢ | $11,270 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November? | 13¢ | $1,163 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? | 31¢ | $1,227 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November? | 90¢ | $258 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.