Traders › carlos484
carlos484: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x9e72…99c4 · Tailwhale rank #183 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
42/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+1.9 pts
Win rate
67% of positions
Markets traded
48 in 180 days
PnL: $107,270 this month · ROI on closed positions 19.0%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
41.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 9/100 | 3.7 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.9 pts on 43 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 49/100 | 9.7 | Return with the three best positions removed (+9.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 48 | 5.6 | 48 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.9 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 43 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 67% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $136,584 |
| finance | $5,711 |
| crypto | −$1,335 |
| sports | −$10,681 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | 90¢ | $19,014 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 99¢ | $19,014 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 99¢ | $514 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | 87¢ | $2,590 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | 86¢ | $118 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | 84¢ | $146 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 98¢ | $4,908 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | 88¢ | $5,108 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 98¢ | $5,094 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 90¢ | $26,460 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 84¢ | $9,641 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 97¢ | $9,700 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 79¢ | $8,483 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 97¢ | $8,558 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 70¢ | $2,964 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.