Traders › defillama7
defillama7: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x4c8c…e36f · Tailwhale rank #98 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
55/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+14.5 pts
Win rate
68% of positions
Markets traded
73 in 180 days
PnL: $119,545 this month · ROI on closed positions 20.1%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
54.8 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 68/100 | 27.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +14.5 pts on 80 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 7/100 | 1.3 | Return with the three best positions removed (+1.3%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 73 | 6.2 | 73 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +14.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 80 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +13.9 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 68% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $543,399 |
| sports | $30,896 |
| finance | −$27,111 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 76¢ | $38 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 52¢ | $1,297 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 65¢ | $1,820 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 39¢ | $142 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 99¢ | $23 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 36¢ | $733 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 63¢ | $1,859 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold No | Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 86¢ | $7,250 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 98¢ | $43,671 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought No | Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 66¢ | $5,300 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | 30¢ | $29 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 36¢ | $2,520 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 36¢ | $10,800 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 33¢ | $11,820 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 36¢ | $3,600 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.