Traders › e46m3
e46m3: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x4f1d…8de2 · Tailwhale rank #71 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
60/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−0.1 pts
Win rate
37% of positions
Markets traded
1,182 in 180 days
PnL: $3,607,455 this month · ROI on closed positions 18.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
59.9 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star). Capped below 4★ (see below).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 50/100 | 20.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -0.1 pts on 596 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-4.3%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1182 | 10.0 | 1182 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -0.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 596 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -3.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 37% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Capped at 59.9: on 596 resolved positions this wallet did worse than the market's own odds (-0.1 pts), so it can't show 4–5 stars.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $315,793 |
| sports | $62,341 |
| finance | $44,550 |
| culture | $11,962 |
| tech | $8,524 |
| esports | $4,306 |
| crypto | $1,807 |
| weather | $1,420 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 73¢ | $41 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 70¢ | $38 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Baidu have the best AI model on December 15, 2026? | 100¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Lin Chun-hsien win the next Tainan Mayor election? | 100¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14? | 48¢ | $125 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Philippines win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 36¢ | $33 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Laos win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 97¢ | $88 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Mongolia win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 100¢ | $91 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on November 14? | 43¢ | $30 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 16? | 100¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 16? | 100¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Vietnam win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 98¢ | $115 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Mongolia win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 100¢ | $117 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Laos win Eurovision Asia 2026? | 97¢ | $113 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026? | 53¢ | $36 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.