Traders › FakePolls
FakePolls: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xd24b…ef76 · Tailwhale rank #57 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
65/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+7.5 pts
Win rate
60% of positions
Markets traded
441 in 180 days
PnL: $138,068 this month · ROI on closed positions 15.6%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
65 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 50/100 | 20.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +7.5 pts on 488 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 42/100 | 8.4 | Return with the three best positions removed (+8.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 441 | 8.8 | 441 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +7.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 488 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +7.3 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 60% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $187,617 |
| sports | $1,021 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Sold No | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 29¢ | $131 |
| 2026-11-09 | Sold No | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 30¢ | $164 |
| 2026-11-05 | Bought Yes | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 73¢ | $241 |
| 2026-11-05 | Bought Yes | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 72¢ | $223 |
| 2026-11-05 | Bought Yes | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 70¢ | $2,092 |
| 2026-11-05 | Bought Yes | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 95¢ | $753 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 94¢ | $118 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 93¢ | $205 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 94¢ | $156 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 91¢ | $175 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 91¢ | $364 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 92¢ | $117 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 92¢ | $73 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 91¢ | $265 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 96¢ | $346 |
Get alerts when FakePolls trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.