Traders › fatfatcat
fatfatcat: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x6d98…efe9 · Tailwhale rank #91 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
56/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+6.3 pts
Win rate
54% of positions
Markets traded
133 in 180 days
PnL: $248,416 this month · ROI on closed positions 18.7%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
56.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 36/100 | 14.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +6.3 pts on 138 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 60/100 | 12.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+12.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 133 | 7.1 | 133 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +6.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 138 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +6.3 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 54% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $152,519 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Bulls | Spread: Celtics (-14.5) | 53¢ | $4,240 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Bulls | Spread: Celtics (-15.5) | 56¢ | $8,995 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Heat | Spread: Heat (-9.5) | 46¢ | $9,200 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Heat | Spread: Heat (-8.5) | 50¢ | $464 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Lakers | Spread: Lakers (-3.5) | 49¢ | $9,800 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Knicks | Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | 49¢ | $5,969 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Pistons | Spread: Pistons (-8.5) | 48¢ | $6,286 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Hornets | Spread: Wizards (-1.5) | 55¢ | $1,350 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Heat | Spread: Heat (-7.5) | 55¢ | $7,792 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Rockets | Spread: Rockets (-6.5) | 50¢ | $3,557 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Pistons | Spread: Pistons (-7.5) | 53¢ | $142 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought Over | Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5 | 49¢ | $794 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought Spurs | Spread: Spurs (-14.5) | 48¢ | $9,600 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Pistons | Spread: Pistons (-7.5) | 50¢ | $10,000 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Heat | Spread: Hawks (-1.5) | 46¢ | $3,503 |
Get alerts when fatfatcat trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.