Traders › forecastication4
forecastication4: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x885f…8ed9 · Tailwhale rank #1 by skill · ★★★★★
Skill Score
100/100 · 5★
Beat the odds
+10.1 pts
Win rate
66% of positions
Markets traded
2,381 in 180 days
PnL: $130,419 this month · ROI on closed positions 27.0%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 5 stars: the score breakdown
100 out of 100 → 5★ (80–100 = 5★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 100/100 | 40.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +10.1 pts on 2454 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 100/100 | 20.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+24.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 2381 | 10.0 | 2381 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +10.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 2454 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +10.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 66% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $181,130 |
| esports | $6,925 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Hawks | Spread: Hawks (-2.5) | 73¢ | $269 |
| 2026-10-28 | Sold Under | Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5 | 47¢ | $133 |
| 2026-10-28 | Sold Under | Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5 | 47¢ | $1,175 |
| 2026-10-28 | Sold Under | Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5 | 47¢ | $1,175 |
| 2026-10-18 | Sold No | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? | 35¢ | $2,450 |
| 2026-10-18 | Sold No | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? | 35¢ | $350 |
| 2026-10-16 | Sold Under | RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5 | 6¢ | $60 |
| 2026-10-13 | Sold Over | Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 | 54¢ | $246 |
| 2026-10-13 | Sold Over | Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 | 55¢ | $275 |
| 2026-10-12 | Sold No | Will Ilias Bulaid win by KO or TKO? | 64¢ | $64 |
| 2026-10-12 | Sold Ilias Bulaid | Dana White's Contender Series: Ilias Bulaid vs. Erick Visconde (Featherweight, Main Card) | 59¢ | $8,260 |
| 2026-10-10 | Sold No | Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO? | 88¢ | $122 |
| 2026-10-10 | Sold No | Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO? | 87¢ | $87 |
| 2026-10-09 | Bought Columbia | Columbia vs. Marist | 62¢ | $38 |
| 2026-10-09 | Bought Columbia | Columbia vs. Marist | 62¢ | $62 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.