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forgotmydinner: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x4a0e…a4b1 · Tailwhale rank #45 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
72/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+0.6 pts
Win rate
29% of positions
Markets traded
810 in 180 days
PnL: $286,593 this month · ROI on closed positions 69.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
72.1 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 34/100 | 13.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +0.6 pts on 551 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 94/100 | 18.8 | Return with the three best positions removed (+18.8%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 810 | 9.7 | 810 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +0.6 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 551 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.7 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 29% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $38,221 |
| sports | $32,587 |
| tech | $14,544 |
| esports | $10,927 |
| culture | $2,629 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | 13¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | 20¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | 44¢ | $144 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | 11¢ | $55 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | 3¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | 12¢ | $60 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | 7¢ | $33 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | 2¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | 7¢ | $33 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | 3¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | 12¢ | $60 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | 11¢ | $55 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | 2¢ | $41 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | 1¢ | $26 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? | 1¢ | $25 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.