Traders › gardenshed
gardenshed: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x81da…a109 · Tailwhale rank #8 by skill · ★★★★★
Skill Score
94/100 · 5★
Beat the odds
+39.3 pts
Win rate
85% of positions
Markets traded
20 in 180 days
PnL: – · $1,268,037 all time · ROI on closed positions 74.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 5 stars: the score breakdown
94.3 out of 100 → 5★ (80–100 = 5★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 100/100 | 40.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +39.3 pts on 20 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 100/100 | 20.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+30.9%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 20 | 4.3 | 20 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +39.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 20 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +39.3 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 85% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $1,268,037 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Bought Under | Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | $15,189 |
| 2026-06-21 | Bought Under | Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | $2,821 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought No | Germany leading at halftime? | 51¢ | $2,706 |
| 2026-06-20 | Bought Yes | Uruguay leading at halftime? | 47¢ | $702 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought No | Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | 40¢ | $22,696 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought No | Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | 40¢ | $77,304 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought Brazil | Spread: Brazil (-2.5) | 54¢ | $32,400 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought No | Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | 40¢ | $16,000 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought No | Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | 40¢ | $51,253 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought No | Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | 40¢ | $28,747 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought Brazil | Spread: Brazil (-2.5) | 53¢ | $13,031 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bought Under | United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 | 49¢ | $19,716 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bought Canada | Spread: Canada (-1.5) | 51¢ | $7,728 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bought Canada | Spread: Canada (-1.5) | 51¢ | $13,317 |
| 2026-06-18 | Bought Canada | Spread: Canada (-1.5) | 51¢ | $7,695 |
Get alerts when gardenshed trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.