Traders › hot2trot
hot2trot: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xb61b…8a06 · Tailwhale rank #54 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
67/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+12.5 pts
Win rate
61% of positions
Markets traded
59 in 180 days
PnL: – · $2,093,219 all time · ROI on closed positions 31.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
67.1 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 45/100 | 18.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +12.5 pts on 61 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 65/100 | 13.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+13.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 59 | 5.9 | 59 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +12.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 61 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +12.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 61% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $2,093,219 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Bought Under | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners | 46¢ | $6,935 |
| 2026-07-18 | Bought Under | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 | 58¢ | $28,657 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bought England | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 54¢ | $125,956 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bought England | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 54¢ | $41,803 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bought No | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 60¢ | $17,500 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bought No | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 60¢ | $101,500 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bought Spain | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 41¢ | $60,750 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bought Under | France vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | 52¢ | $160 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bought Under | France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | $19,946 |
| 2026-07-13 | Bought Under | France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | $24,750 |
| 2026-07-13 | Bought Under | France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | 49¢ | $2,197 |
| 2026-07-13 | Bought Under | France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | 49¢ | $133,638 |
| 2026-07-09 | Bought Yes | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | 59¢ | $11,644 |
| 2026-07-08 | Bought Over | Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | $19,699 |
| 2026-07-07 | Bought Under | Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners | 47¢ | $5,190 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.