Traders › hqb.prediction
hqb.prediction: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x76ec…d630 · Tailwhale rank #173 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
43/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+3.0 pts
Win rate
28% of positions
Markets traded
221 in 180 days
PnL: $271,322 this month · ROI on closed positions 1.8%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
42.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 30/100 | 12.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +3.0 pts on 328 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-19.8%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 221 | 7.8 | 221 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +3.0 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 328 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.9 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 28% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| crypto | $50,393 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November? | 15¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in November? | 2¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November? | 12¢ | $14 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November? | 12¢ | $18 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November? | 12¢ | $114 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November? | 9¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November? | 11¢ | $74 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November? | 10¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November? | 7¢ | $69 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in November? | 9¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November? | 7¢ | $900 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November? | 8¢ | $870 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in November? | 3¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November? | 4¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November? | 5¢ | $51 |
Get alerts when hqb.prediction trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.