Traders › kaxel78
kaxel78: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xc1b5…5d85 · Tailwhale rank #69 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
60/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+0.6 pts
Win rate
34% of positions
Markets traded
1,890 in 180 days
PnL: $543,852 this month · ROI on closed positions 24.7%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
60.3 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 14/100 | 5.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +0.6 pts on 1396 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 74/100 | 14.7 | Return with the three best positions removed (+14.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1890 | 10.0 | 1890 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +0.6 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1396 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 34% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $41,266 |
| finance | $11,736 |
| culture | $6,344 |
| tech | $3,573 |
| sports | $1,220 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 15? | 98¢ | $61 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 15? | 83¢ | $52 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 15? | 52¢ | $33 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 15? | 97¢ | $61 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 15? | 94¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 14°C on November 15? | 100¢ | $53 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 15? | 54¢ | $29 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 15? | 95¢ | $51 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 15? | 100¢ | $53 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 16? | 100¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 16? | 95¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on November 16? | 99¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 16? | 60¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 16? | 96¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on November 16? | 54¢ | $27 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.