Traders › Kettle
Kettle: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xb4f2…7851 · Tailwhale rank #105 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
54/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+11.8 pts
Win rate
70% of positions
Markets traded
52 in 180 days
PnL: $189,905 this month · ROI on closed positions 26.8%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
53.7 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 56/100 | 22.4 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +11.8 pts on 54 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 40/100 | 8.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+8.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 52 | 5.7 | 52 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +11.8 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 54 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +11.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 70% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $271,741 |
| finance | $94,313 |
| tech | $9,387 |
| crypto | $2,480 |
| sports | −$2,185 |
| esports | −$17,187 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 85¢ | $2,955 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 24¢ | $1,991 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 70¢ | $836 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 90¢ | $3,184 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027? | 94¢ | $1,833 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 91¢ | $2,737 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 46¢ | $7,429 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 68¢ | $301 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 89¢ | $5,598 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 63¢ | $9,901 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | 20¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 57¢ | $8,810 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | 14¢ | $5,929 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 30¢ | $21,324 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 30¢ | $2,933 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.