Traders › Loyalty-Crash
Loyalty-Crash: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x44d9…4c1a · Tailwhale rank #27 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
80/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+25.9 pts
Win rate
64% of positions
Markets traded
42 in 180 days
PnL: $67,949 this month · ROI on closed positions 50.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
79.7 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 84/100 | 33.8 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +25.9 pts on 38 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 78/100 | 15.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+15.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 42 | 5.4 | 42 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +25.9 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 38 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +25.2 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 64% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $178,535 |
| finance | $7,230 |
| crypto | $2,025 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in November? | 71¢ | $1,267 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in November? | 47¢ | $58 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold No | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 23¢ | $651 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold No | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | 6¢ | $234 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | 12¢ | $469 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 2¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Trump impeached and removed before 2028? | 20¢ | $142 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 31¢ | $1,457 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 31¢ | $71 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 31¢ | $2,262 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | 63¢ | $226 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | 63¢ | $169 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | 62¢ | $495 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Blue tsunami in 2026? | 66¢ | $361 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 30¢ | $1,067 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.