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lpgb: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x1f5f…50fa · Tailwhale rank #121 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
51/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−2.5 pts
Win rate
35% of positions
Markets traded
1,057 in 180 days
PnL: $878,595 this month · ROI on closed positions 23.0%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
50.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -2.5 pts on 605 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 52/100 | 10.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+10.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1057 | 10.0 | 1057 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -2.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 605 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -0.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 35% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $72,349 |
| tech | $4,800 |
| culture | $4,431 |
| finance | $4,404 |
| esports | $1,847 |
| sports | $1,682 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Sold No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | 57¢ | $72 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Lazio win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | 93¢ | $54 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will AC Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | 94¢ | $55 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | 91¢ | $31 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | 85¢ | $49 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? | 95¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the January meeting? | 97¢ | $40 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the January meeting? | 91¢ | $38 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | 90¢ | $137 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Yes | Will "Drummer Boy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m? | 98¢ | $66 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sold No | Will CZ post 40-59 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026? | 66¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sold No | Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m? | 51¢ | $10 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026? | 67¢ | $47 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026? | 88¢ | $63 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | 12¢ | $25 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.