Traders › marvelousmarvin
marvelousmarvin: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x31fb…0ca6 · Tailwhale rank #134 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
48/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+5.0 pts
Win rate
56% of positions
Markets traded
132 in 180 days
PnL: $61,072 this month · ROI on closed positions 6.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
48.2 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 28/100 | 11.1 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +5.0 pts on 133 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-2.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 132 | 7.1 | 132 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +5.0 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 133 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +5.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 56% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $39,734 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5 | 47¢ | $3,972 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 202.5 | 53¢ | $9,524 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5 | 50¢ | $5,009 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 | 50¢ | $5,925 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Under | Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5 | 49¢ | $549 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 214.5 | 51¢ | $5,507 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 214.5 | 50¢ | $6,984 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 210.5 | 51¢ | $7,502 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Under | Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 | 53¢ | $6,474 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Under | Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 | 49¢ | $6,771 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Under | Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5 | 49¢ | $6,771 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Under | Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 221.5 | 50¢ | $582 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Under | Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 213.5 | 52¢ | $1,471 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Under | Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 | 49¢ | $776 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Under | Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5 | 51¢ | $2,815 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.