Traders › Michael-The-Taxiarch
Michael-The-Taxiarch: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x3cc3…fb0b · Tailwhale rank #93 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
56/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+5.4 pts
Win rate
60% of positions
Markets traded
157 in 180 days
PnL: $100,228 this month · ROI on closed positions 16.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
55.6 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 42/100 | 16.8 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +5.4 pts on 142 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 32/100 | 6.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+6.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 157 | 7.3 | 157 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +5.4 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 142 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +5.6 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 60% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| finance | $48,932 |
| politics | $48,194 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | 38¢ | $215 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | 18¢ | $577 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold No | Jensen Huang admits to another affair with a woman by December 31? | 46¢ | $388 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Third Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31? | 47¢ | $41 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Third Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31? | 39¢ | $1,078 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | 45¢ | $195 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | 45¢ | $581 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | 46¢ | $462 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | 37¢ | $1,557 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 99¢ | $12,163 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 99¢ | $13,849 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 99¢ | $3,040 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 37¢ | $24,108 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 39¢ | $2,049 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 75¢ | $168 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.