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monkeymashingkeyboard: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x684b…8409 · Tailwhale rank #85 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
57/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+2.4 pts
Win rate
53% of positions
Markets traded
1,412 in 180 days
PnL: $1,572,541 this month · $1,492,234 all time · ROI on closed positions 7.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
56.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 36/100 | 14.5 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +2.4 pts on 1480 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 25/100 | 5.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+5.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1412 | 10.0 | 1412 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +2.4 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1480 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 53% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $1,492,234 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Linda Noskova | WTA Finals, Final Stage: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina | 61¢ | $499 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Clippers | Thunder vs. Clippers | 32¢ | $2,988 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Rockets | Jazz vs. Rockets | 92¢ | $13,800 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Rockets | Jazz vs. Rockets | 92¢ | $27,600 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Indiana | Spread: Indiana (-8.5) | 53¢ | $466 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Kings | Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) | 52¢ | $61 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Kings | Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) | 52¢ | $4,004 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Over | Texans vs. Browns: O/U 40.5 | 50¢ | $8,579 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Over | Texans vs. Browns: O/U 40.5 | 49¢ | $1,097 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Bulls | Spread: Hawks (-7.5) | 53¢ | $612 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Bulls | Hawks vs. Bulls | 29¢ | $3,559 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Falcons | Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) | 54¢ | $2,379 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought SIUE Cougars | Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-44.5) | 52¢ | $52 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought SIUE Cougars | Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-44.5) | 51¢ | $987 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Under | Rangers vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 | 52¢ | $77 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.