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ndb1: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xfea3…d227 · Tailwhale rank #124 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
50/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+2.0 pts
Win rate
68% of positions
Markets traded
1,413 in 180 days
PnL: $177,815 this month · $4,403,988 all time · ROI on closed positions 3.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
49.8 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 29/100 | 11.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +2.0 pts on 1407 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 1/100 | 0.3 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.3%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1413 | 10.0 | 1413 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +2.0 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1407 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.9 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 68% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $3,213,464 |
| politics | $1,052,189 |
| esports | $88,091 |
| crypto | $48,642 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Sold No | Will Josh Jacobs finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? | 100¢ | $27 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sold Yes | Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | 2¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will South Korea win Group E at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup? | 1¢ | $14 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will Colorado State reach the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four? | 94¢ | $38 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Toronto Blue Jays advance to the World Series in the 2027 MLB Playoffs? | 93¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will New York Mets advance to the World Series in the 2027 MLB Playoffs? | 92¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will Washington Nationals advance to the World Series in the 2027 MLB Playoffs? | 88¢ | $642 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 100¢ | $41 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 100¢ | $76 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 0¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 0¢ | $28 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 0¢ | $40 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 2¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 2¢ | $13 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | $54,010 | 76¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.