Traders › NordhavenCap
NordhavenCap: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x91fe…c1c6 · Tailwhale rank #95 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
55/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+3.1 pts
Win rate
58% of positions
Markets traded
2,006 in 180 days
PnL: $99,078 this month · ROI on closed positions 6.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
55 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 50/100 | 20.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +3.1 pts on 2229 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 25/100 | 5.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+5.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 33/100 | 5.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 2006 | 10.0 | 2006 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +3.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 2229 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +3.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 58% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $330,009 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Golden Knights | Predators vs. Golden Knights | 54¢ | $1,386 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Predators | Predators vs. Golden Knights | 65¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Golden Knights | Predators vs. Golden Knights | 89¢ | $85 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Golden Knights | Predators vs. Golden Knights | 80¢ | $2,870 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Predators | Predators vs. Golden Knights | 41¢ | $1,478 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Predators | Predators vs. Golden Knights | 42¢ | $1,505 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Golden Knights | Predators vs. Golden Knights | 64¢ | $2,310 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Canada win on 2026-11-13? | 2¢ | $60 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Rangers | Rangers vs. Canucks | 66¢ | $2,380 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Luxembourg vs. Estonia end in a draw? | 85¢ | $162 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Netherlands vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score | 63¢ | $67 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Over | Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 5.5 | 83¢ | $76 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Netherlands vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score | 63¢ | $59 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Luxembourg win on 2026-11-13? | 77¢ | $59 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | Will Netherlands win on 2026-11-13? | 2¢ | $10 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.