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occasionalAwareness: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x8a4c…532b · Tailwhale rank #96 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
55/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+4.1 pts
Win rate
68% of positions
Markets traded
84 in 180 days
PnL: – · $1,166,174 all time · ROI on closed positions 10.8%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
54.9 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 28/100 | 11.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +4.1 pts on 77 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 37/100 | 7.3 | Return with the three best positions removed (+7.3%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 84 | 6.4 | 84 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +4.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 77 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +4.2 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 68% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $611,689 |
| sports | $101,930 |
| finance | $99,186 |
| culture | $71,996 |
| crypto | $48,314 |
| tech | $14,785 |
| esports | $3,600 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will Jensen Huang's resignation or removal not be announced and Nvidia's market cap be below $4T at the end of 2026? | 97¢ | $331 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? | 71¢ | $361 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 75¢ | $5,828 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? | 67¢ | $2,822 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | 9¢ | $881 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | 6¢ | $43 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 17¢ | $168 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | 8¢ | $213 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 6¢ | $122 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 21¢ | $834 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | 6¢ | $175 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 28¢ | $18 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 30¢ | $9,471 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | 4¢ | $195 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 76¢ | $24,053 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | $131,604 | 95¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.