Traders › pollo07
pollo07: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x7248…7e72 · Tailwhale rank #48 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
69/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+1.3 pts
Win rate
33% of positions
Markets traded
1,850 in 180 days
PnL: $435,959 this month · ROI on closed positions 23.6%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
69.2 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 36/100 | 14.5 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.3 pts on 1470 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 73/100 | 14.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+14.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1850 | 10.0 | 1850 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1470 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.6 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 33% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $33,307 |
| finance | $6,226 |
| tech | $2,414 |
| culture | $1,104 |
| sports | $1,048 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | 45¢ | $1,024 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | 52¢ | $1,440 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? | 23¢ | $31 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 99¢ | $51 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 100¢ | $51 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 100¢ | $51 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 1¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 0¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | 50¢ | $2,502 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | 5¢ | $15 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | 87¢ | $351 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.