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poptree: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x57c5…07aa · Tailwhale rank #152 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
46/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+6.6 pts
Win rate
66% of positions
Markets traded
48 in 180 days
PnL: $59,391 this month · ROI on closed positions 1.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
45.6 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 30/100 | 11.9 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +6.6 pts on 53 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 3/100 | 0.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 83/100 | 12.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 48 | 5.6 | 48 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +6.6 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 53 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +6.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 66% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $245,958 |
| culture | $51,115 |
| crypto | $13,184 |
| tech | $7,008 |
| finance | $6,103 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 78¢ | $3,974 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 8¢ | $320 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 10¢ | $200 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027? | 91¢ | $192 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 85¢ | $2,595 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 87¢ | $1,410 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 56¢ | $384 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 36¢ | $978 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 86¢ | $4,233 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 39¢ | $148 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 43¢ | $254 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 69¢ | $2,028 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 35¢ | $504 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 80¢ | $973 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 75¢ | $2,252 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.