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primm: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xd38b…5029 · Tailwhale rank #23 by skill · ★★★★★
Skill Score
81/100 · 5★
Beat the odds
+4.1 pts
Win rate
52% of positions
Markets traded
2,428 in 180 days
PnL: $330,565 this month · $3,609,539 all time · ROI on closed positions 15.3%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 5 stars: the score breakdown
80.5 out of 100 → 5★ (80–100 = 5★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 74/100 | 29.5 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +4.1 pts on 2819 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 55/100 | 11.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+11.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 2428 | 10.0 | 2428 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +4.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 2819 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +4.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 52% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $3,609,539 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Michigan vs. Oregon: O/U 39.5 | 51¢ | $878 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Georgia Southern | Spread: Georgia Southern (-6.5) | 49¢ | $3,629 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Georgia Southern | Spread: Georgia Southern (-7.5) | 43¢ | $5,000 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought West Virginia | Spread: West Virginia (-3.5) | 44¢ | $323 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought West Virginia | Spread: West Virginia (-4.5) | 42¢ | $1,318 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Florida International vs. Delaware: O/U 51.5 | 57¢ | $573 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Florida International | Spread: Delaware (-3.5) | 48¢ | $5,000 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Kennesaw State | Spread: Kennesaw State (-7.5) | 49¢ | $1,147 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Kennesaw State | Spread: Kennesaw State (-13.5) | 37¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 53.5 | 49¢ | $605 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 51.5 | 54¢ | $3,493 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Under | Alabama vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 49.5 | 54¢ | $57 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Under | Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 53.5 | 56¢ | $4,888 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Nebraska | Spread: Nebraska (-16.5) | 48¢ | $3,344 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Under | Wake Forest vs. SMU: O/U 59.5 | 48¢ | $1,549 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.