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qwen300.fund: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xb0c8…fe7f · Tailwhale rank #194 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
40/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−5.7 pts
Win rate
21% of positions
Markets traded
1,097 in 180 days
PnL: $585,808 this month · ROI on closed positions 6.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
40 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -5.7 pts on 687 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-4.3%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1097 | 10.0 | 1097 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -5.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 687 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -3.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 21% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $166,885 |
| sports | $34,652 |
| finance | $21,520 |
| tech | $17,215 |
| culture | $16,820 |
| esports | $6,315 |
| weather | $4,900 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 78¢ | $39 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 89¢ | $45 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 82¢ | $41 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 97¢ | $49 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 99¢ | $49 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 99¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 78¢ | $39 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 100¢ | $50 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.