Traders › Railcool
Railcool: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x94c4…43ca · Tailwhale rank #29 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
80/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+10.6 pts
Win rate
49% of positions
Markets traded
173 in 180 days
PnL: $448,021 this month · ROI on closed positions 68.1%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
79.6 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 82/100 | 32.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +10.6 pts on 172 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 100/100 | 20.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+33.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 173 | 7.5 | 173 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +10.6 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 172 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +10.5 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 49% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $542,765 |
| weather | $9,069 |
| finance | −$2,419 |
| culture | −$23,349 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will CDU be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | 81¢ | $101 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31? | 1¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2¢ | $164 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | 40¢ | $4,573 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 40¢ | $979 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 41¢ | $150 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat? | 27¢ | $68 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? | 58¢ | $597 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 68¢ | $497 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 63¢ | $731 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 41¢ | $54 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | 2¢ | $6,600 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | 0¢ | $44 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat? | 27¢ | $304 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? | 55¢ | $110 |
Get alerts when Railcool trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.