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ropetard: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x2c86…d939 · Tailwhale rank #31 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
79/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+1.7 pts
Win rate
69% of positions
Markets traded
177 in 180 days
PnL: $141,618 this month · ROI on closed positions 2.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
78.9 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 100/100 | 40.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.7 pts on 200 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 7/100 | 1.4 | Return with the three best positions removed (+1.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 177 | 7.5 | 177 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 200 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.7 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 69% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $91,919 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Clippers | Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | 49¢ | $3,206 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Clippers | Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | 49¢ | $3,206 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Mavericks | Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5) | 38¢ | $422 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Mavericks | Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) | 31¢ | $307 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Mavericks | Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) | 51¢ | $510 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Spurs | Spread: Spurs (-8.5) | 71¢ | $355 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Spurs | Spread: Spurs (-10.5) | 60¢ | $1,679 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Spurs | Spread: Spurs (-10.5) | 34¢ | $952 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Spurs | Spread: Spurs (-8.5) | 42¢ | $210 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Raptors | Spread: Celtics (-3.5) | 43¢ | $69 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Raptors | Spread: Celtics (-6.5) | 53¢ | $1,138 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Raptors | Spread: Celtics (-6.5) | 54¢ | $2,454 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Raptors | Spread: Celtics (-3.5) | 44¢ | $172 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Raptors | Spread: Celtics (-5.5) | 52¢ | $421 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Raptors | Spread: Celtics (-6.5) | 55¢ | $419 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.