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roscoff: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x03dc…99e1 · Tailwhale rank #92 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
56/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+2.2 pts
Win rate
70% of positions
Markets traded
1,385 in 180 days
PnL: $79,977 this month · ROI on closed positions 9.3%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
56.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 34/100 | 13.4 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +2.2 pts on 1536 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 32/100 | 6.4 | Return with the three best positions removed (+6.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 75/100 | 11.2 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1385 | 10.0 | 1385 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +2.2 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1536 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.2 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 70% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $108,660 |
| esports | $15,049 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw? | 76¢ | $3,700 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | FK Austria Wien to score first vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica? | 94¢ | $47 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | $51 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Under | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 0.5 | 47¢ | $66 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw? | 75¢ | $3,650 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | 0¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will the fight be won by submission? | 99¢ | $75 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Yes | Will Johnny Walker win by KO or TKO? | 96¢ | $114 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Under | O/U 3.5 Rounds | 99¢ | $75 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Fight to Go the Distance? | 99¢ | $177 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Over | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 99¢ | $189 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought No | Will the fight be won by submission? | 99¢ | $95 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Virna Jandiroba | UFC Fight Night: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | 13¢ | $101 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Virna Jandiroba | UFC Fight Night: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | 13¢ | $101 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Virna Jandiroba | UFC Fight Night: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | 13¢ | $101 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.