Traders › ThanksGivingTurkey1001
ThanksGivingTurkey1001: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xbace…3429 · Tailwhale rank #178 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
42/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+1.0 pts
Win rate
64% of positions
Markets traded
267 in 180 days
PnL: $147,382 this month · ROI on closed positions 3.0%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
42.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 10/100 | 4.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.0 pts on 259 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-1.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 267 | 8.1 | 267 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.0 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 259 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 64% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $24,556 |
| finance | $20,646 |
| crypto | $17,925 |
| sports | $2,903 |
| culture | $1,349 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | 98¢ | $1,068 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November? | 2¢ | $187 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 99¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 96¢ | $2,398 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | 98¢ | $2,125 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 99¢ | $57,769 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | 93¢ | $1,443 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in November? | 98¢ | $1,384 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? | 98¢ | $326 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? | 98¢ | $3,831 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | 99¢ | $5,131 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | 99¢ | $15,988 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? | 98¢ | $2,003 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 98¢ | $785 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | 98¢ | $3,701 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | $8,523 | 95¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.