Traders › TheGreatBeta
TheGreatBeta: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xf322…ebf9 · Tailwhale rank #197 by skill · ★★☆☆☆
Skill Score
40/100 · 2★
Beat the odds
−1.3 pts
Win rate
27% of positions
Markets traded
743 in 180 days
PnL: $69,894 this month · ROI on closed positions 10.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 2 stars: the score breakdown
39.6 out of 100 → 2★ (20–39.9 = 2★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -1.3 pts on 627 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-4.1%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 743 | 9.6 | 743 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -1.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 627 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -1.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 27% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| esports | $5,853 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 19¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 16¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 15¢ | $10 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 16¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? | 11¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 16¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m? | 59¢ | $30 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 23¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Bournemouth finish first in UEL league phase? | 35¢ | $18 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? | 9¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 13¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 14¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026? | 16¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Xun win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? | 8¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Knight win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? | 16¢ | $27 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.