Traders › Vale54holi
Vale54holi: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x9d0d…2e6d · Tailwhale rank #44 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
72/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+1.9 pts
Win rate
35% of positions
Markets traded
1,582 in 180 days
PnL: $379,659 this month · ROI on closed positions 26.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
72.4 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 45/100 | 17.8 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.9 pts on 1256 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 73/100 | 14.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+14.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1582 | 10.0 | 1582 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.9 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1256 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.7 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 35% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $32,884 |
| finance | $5,875 |
| culture | $2,810 |
| tech | $1,990 |
| sports | $1,255 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi governor race in 2027? | 51¢ | $14 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will the Democrats win the Kentucky governor race in 2027? | 59¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Kentucky governor race in 2027? | 27¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 12¢ | $259 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 97¢ | $2,088 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | 27¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | 13¢ | $137 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | 36¢ | $412 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will no new permanent NVIDIA CEO be named by December 31, 2028? | 95¢ | $79 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will NVIDIA's next CEO be an external candidate? | 56¢ | $47 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 92¢ | $172 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | 87¢ | $194 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Jensen Huang's resignation or removal be announced and Nvidia's market cap be below $4T at the end of 2026? | 61¢ | $104 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | 67¢ | $404 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | 67¢ | $150 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.