Traders › VerilyWinningly
VerilyWinningly: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x6276…9db5 · Tailwhale rank #74 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
60/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−0.5 pts
Win rate
38% of positions
Markets traded
1,140 in 180 days
PnL: $184,651 this month · ROI on closed positions 27.8%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
59.9 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star). Capped below 4★ (see below).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -0.5 pts on 1062 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 100/100 | 20.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+20.1%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1140 | 10.0 | 1140 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -0.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1062 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +0.6 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 38% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Capped at 59.9: on 1062 resolved positions this wallet did worse than the market's own odds (-0.5 pts), so it can't show 4–5 stars.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $29,587 |
| finance | $1,848 |
| culture | $1,231 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | 74¢ | $30 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Lai Jui-lung win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? | 14¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? | 38¢ | $53 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | 72¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | 65¢ | $123 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 47¢ | $35 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | 77¢ | $46 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 91¢ | $45 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | 82¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | 84¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | 83¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in November 2026? | 74¢ | $14 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | 73¢ | $44 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election? | 72¢ | $38 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | 29¢ | $108 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.