Traders › Substantial-Service
Substantial-Service: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x2c33…0563 · Tailwhale rank #172 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
43/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+0.7 pts
Win rate
50% of positions
Markets traded
2,169 in 180 days
PnL: $2,223,611 this month · $5,907,674 all time · ROI on closed positions 3.1%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
42.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 12/100 | 4.9 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +0.7 pts on 2769 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 3/100 | 0.7 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 2169 | 10.0 | 2169 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +0.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 2769 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +0.7 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 50% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| esports | $3,593,600 |
| sports | $2,755,491 |
| crypto | $32,681 |
| finance | $26,917 |
| politics | −$581,176 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Lumbini Lions | Nepal Premier League: Biratnagar Kings vs Lumbini Lions | 42¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Stockport County FC vs. Reading FC: O/U 2.5 | 63¢ | $5,802 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Kosovo win on 2026-11-14? | 41¢ | $2,152 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Kosovo vs. Israel: O/U 3.5 | 25¢ | $375 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Kosovo win on 2026-11-14? | 46¢ | $670 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Lumbini Lions | Nepal Premier League: Biratnagar Kings vs Lumbini Lions | 56¢ | $2,800 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Taylor Fritz | BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | 66¢ | $351 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Under | China PR vs. Malaysia: O/U 2.5 | 55¢ | $1,929 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Team Falcons | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner | 14¢ | $7,000 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Over | Stockport County FC vs. Reading FC: O/U 3.5 | 40¢ | $9,780 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought FURIA | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs | 76¢ | $29,347 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought FURIA | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs | 66¢ | $160 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Team Falcons | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner | 51¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Florida Atlantic | Spread: Tulsa (-5.5) | 46¢ | $131 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Team Falcons | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner | 32¢ | $91 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $177,609 | 68¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.