Traders › Flamboyant-Warming
Flamboyant-Warming: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xc7d0…1f8a · Tailwhale rank #133 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
48/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−0.8 pts
Win rate
41% of positions
Markets traded
1,840 in 180 days
PnL: $88,992 this month · ROI on closed positions 0.6%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
48.2 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 50/100 | 20.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -0.8 pts on 1734 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-0.8%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 71/100 | 10.7 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1840 | 10.0 | 1840 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -0.8 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1734 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -0.8 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 41% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $139,412 |
| politics | $118,873 |
| weather | $40,821 |
| esports | $30,495 |
| finance | $28,799 |
| tech | −$2,129 |
| culture | −$3,685 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | 95¢ | $29 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? | 97¢ | $97 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | 97¢ | $384 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | 97¢ | $28 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | 99¢ | $305 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | New pandemic in 2026? | 98¢ | $1,401 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | 97¢ | $101 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | 99¢ | $316 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | 100¢ | $20 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31? | 98¢ | $161 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | 97¢ | $18 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | 96¢ | $52 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch? | 96¢ | $253 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026? | 100¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? | 96¢ | $53 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | $1,900 | 95¢ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | $1,433 | 66¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.