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bernardbulletin: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x1c14…0869 · Tailwhale rank #60 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
64/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+4.2 pts
Win rate
77% of positions
Markets traded
1,046 in 180 days
PnL: $156,601 this month · ROI on closed positions 17.8%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
63.7 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 50/100 | 20.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +4.2 pts on 1061 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 29/100 | 5.9 | Return with the three best positions removed (+5.9%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1046 | 10.0 | 1046 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +4.2 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1061 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +4.2 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 77% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $237,678 |
| culture | $45,336 |
| sports | $2,564 |
| finance | $2,131 |
| tech | $1,489 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi governor race in 2027? | 32¢ | $792 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Kentucky governor race in 2027? | 26¢ | $1,729 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 25%-30%? | 99¢ | $533 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-02 House election by 15%-20%? | 99¢ | $66 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-02 House election by 10%-15%? | 97¢ | $513 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000? | 99¢ | $74 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000? | 96¢ | $575 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 10%-15%? | 98¢ | $584 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Peggy Flanagan run 3 to 6 points behind Amy Klobuchar? | 99¢ | $45 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Peggy Flanagan run 0 to 3 points behind Amy Klobuchar? | 97¢ | $805 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? | 99¢ | $147 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? | 98¢ | $139 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | 100¢ | $466 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 8,250,000 and 8,500,000? | 99¢ | $2,142 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%? | 100¢ | $7,878 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $15,158 | 1¢ |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | $7,395 | 73¢ |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $6,491 | 1¢ |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $4,204 | 4¢ |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $1,551 | 15¢ |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $892 | 1¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.